Losing one instructor cost you 41 regular attendees, and 29 of them have already stopped renewing. This was never a pricing problem.

I am watching 214 members whose visit frequency dropped below their own baseline in the last 30 days. Historically 62% of members in that state leave within two months.

Refilling the Tuesday 19:00 slot and reaching the 214 before they lapse is worth roughly €11,400 of retained monthly revenue.

Margin held at 27.4% only because you underspent on staff for two months. That underspend is exactly what is now costing you members.

Doing nothing puts you at €142,100 monthly revenue by January. Running the plan puts you at €171,800. The gap over six months is €128,400.

Receivables are clean: €4,180 outstanding, none over 30 days.

You lose most people between the enquiry and the first visit. 163 of 412 never book. The single biggest cause is reply speed after 20:00, when the desk is closed.

Since I started answering out-of-hours enquiries on 12 July, that gap narrowed from 47% to 39%. Every further point is worth about €2,400 a month.

Pool-led enquiries convert at 44% against 28% for gym-led ones, and they buy the €95 membership. That is where the budget should go.

The competitor opening in Ziepniekkalns in September is not your main risk. Your main risk is that 214 people are already drifting and nobody has spoken to them.

If the Tuesday slot is refilled and the at-risk list is worked through, you enter September with 2,690 active members instead of 2,431. That is the difference between defending and reacting.

I can run the messaging and the ad budget myself. Hiring the instructor and approving the schedule change are yours.